Trump's Struggles With Black Voters: Recent Poll Insights

Former president and Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump may not be doing as well with Black voters as previously thought, according to two recent polls. A poll conducted by Howard University's Initiative on Public Opinion found that an overwhelming 83 percent of Black respondents plan to vote for Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, while only 8 percent are supporting Trump. This significant gap in support highlights the ongoing challenges Trump faces in gaining traction with this key demographic.

The survey, which sampled 981 Black likely voters in battleground states such as Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, was conducted between October 2 and 8. With a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points, the results indicate a notable decline in Trump's support compared to similar surveys conducted in previous months.

In a September poll by the same institution, Trump garnered 12 percent support from Black voters, while 81 percent backed Harris. The latest findings reveal a four-point drop in Trump's standing, raising questions about his campaign strategies and outreach efforts directed at Black voters.

The latest survey indicates that 77 percent of respondents have a favorable view of Harris, an increase from 74 percent in September. In contrast, only 15 percent expressed a positive view of Trump, down from 17 percent in the previous month. This trend suggests a growing disconnect between Trump and Black voters as the election approaches.

Another poll conducted by YouGov for CBS News, which took place between October 8 and 11, found that Harris maintains a level of support from Black voters similar to that of President Biden in 2020. This survey revealed that 87 percent of Black likely voters support Harris, while only 12 percent back Trump, further illustrating the Republican candidate's dwindling appeal.

Janiyah Thomas, the Trump campaign's director of Black media engagement, has emphasized the campaign's focus on delivering tangible results rather than relying on poll numbers. She stated, "We know this fight isn't easy, but Team Trump is committed to bringing him back to the White House to continue that progress—lowering costs, creating jobs, and ensuring that Black Americans have the opportunity to thrive again."

With less than three weeks until Election Day, the numbers suggest that Trump has not made the anticipated gains among Black voters since 2020, despite some indications of momentum among Black men. In 2020, 92 percent of Black voters supported Biden, with only about 8 percent backing Trump.

As both candidates strive to win over Black voters and other crucial demographics, even minor shifts in support could significantly impact the election results in battleground states. Harris, the daughter of Jamaican and Indian immigrants, has recently unveiled a plan aimed at providing more opportunities for Black men, addressing concerns that some may choose not to participate in the election or may consider voting for Trump.

This plan follows comments from former President Barack Obama, who noted that some Black men may be hesitant about having a female president. Moreover, a recent poll by the New York Times/Siena College suggested that Trump may be gaining some traction with Black voters, though the overall sentiment still heavily favors Harris.

The New York Times/Siena College poll surveyed 589 Black voters from September 29 to October 6 and found that 78 percent plan to vote for Harris, with 15 percent supporting Trump. According to Katherine Tate, a political science professor at Brown University, the polls may overestimate Trump's support among Black voters. She noted, "The polls are picking up Black nonvoters who are dissatisfied with both candidates but see Trump as more likely to institute change."

Tate further explained that while young Black males may express a preference for Trump, they are less likely to register and vote compared to other groups. The support for Trump among Black voters appears to be poorly mobilized, and those who do vote tend to rally strongly behind Harris. She added, "Sexism in the Black community is also a factor," suggesting that Black male voters who oppose Harris due to her gender are still unlikely to support Trump.

Costas Panagopoulos, a political science professor at Northeastern University, pointed out that small shifts in poll preferences are often misinterpreted as genuine movements, stating, "These are often statistical artifacts, especially when zooming in on limited numbers of subgroups of respondents." He concluded that it is not surprising for Black voters to gravitate toward supporting the Democratic candidate and someone with whom they share a racial identity as Election Day approaches.