Lauren Boebert's Strong Chances In Colorado's 4th District Election

Representative Lauren Boebert is favored to win a new Colorado district seat in the upcoming election, according to The Economist's polling model. As the political landscape shifts, many eyes are on Boebert, who previously represented Colorado's 3rd District and is now pursuing the soon-to-be-vacant 4th District seat held by Representative Ken Buck. Her new district is noteworthy as it boasts the highest Republican index in the state, rated R+13 by the 2023 Cook Partisan Voting Index, making it a significant battleground for the upcoming elections.

Boebert's alignment with former President Donald Trump has solidified her support within the Republican base, as she has been publicly endorsed by him. In March, Trump referred to her as a "trusted America First fighter," which has undoubtedly boosted her campaign's visibility. As we delve deeper into the electoral dynamics, it's essential to consider the various factors influencing this race.

The Economist's latest prediction model highlights Boebert's commanding lead in the race against her Democratic challenger, Trisha Calvarese. The model, which incorporates updated polling data, voting history, candidate fundraising efforts, and national polling trends, suggests a decisive victory for Boebert. Running over 10,000 simulations of the election, the model indicates a +23 percentage point margin in favor of Boebert, giving her a "better than 19 in 20 chance" of securing the seat.

Newsweek reached out to both the Boebert and Calvarese campaigns for comments via email on Wednesday. While House races typically have fewer polls, particularly in less competitive districts, polling aggregates from FiveThirtyEight and The Hill affirm strong, unwavering support for Boebert leading up to the election. Notably, there have been no reported polls since Boebert's successful primary win in June.

Despite the favorable predictions for Boebert, her opponent Calvarese has been actively building her fundraising efforts, amassing around $3.18 million since the race's inception. Of this amount, $2.6 million was raised in the current quarter alone, according to Colorado Public Radio. Meanwhile, financial tracking from OpenSecrets indicates that Calvarese has more cash on hand than Boebert, with over $1.3 million compared to Boebert's $548,551 as of September 30.

Recently, Boebert addressed a rally hosted by Trump in Aurora, located in Colorado's 6th District. During her remarks, she engaged the audience by asking if they were ready for Trump's potential return to the White House in January 2025. Her prior actions, such as voting to overturn the results of the 2020 election, have shaped her political narrative, especially given Trump's claims of widespread voter fraud, which have been widely debunked.

In December 2020, Boebert asserted on social media that challenging the counting of specific electoral votes was not an attempt to "overthrow" the election results, provided those votes were believed to have stemmed from fraud. The ongoing discourse around election integrity continues to resonate within her campaign context.

Update 10/17/24, 12:40 p.m. ET: This article has been updated with new figures for the Calvarese and Boebert campaigns' fundraising.