Rising Tensions: The Imminent Threat Of War Between Israel And Iran

With an attack from Israel on Iran believed to be imminent, fears of an all-out war between the two enemies that could entangle other countries and threaten global stability are coming to a head. Israel has promised to retaliate after Iran fired around 200 ballistic missiles at the country earlier this month. This followed the killing of Hamas Political Bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July and was in response to "the intensification of the regime's evils with the support of the United States," the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said at the time. The latter refers to attacks in Gaza and Lebanon.

Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi stated that the country's "action is concluded unless the Israeli regime decides to invite further retaliation." In that scenario, he added, "our response will be stronger and more powerful." Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Israeli military quickly vowed retaliation, escalating the already heightened tensions.

"We will stand by the rule we established: whoever attacks us—we will attack him," Netanyahu stated. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has reportedly instructed his military to prepare for multiple responses to an Israeli attack but hopes to avoid an all-out war, according to anonymous sources from the New York Times. The group's members indicated that the scope of Iran's retaliation would largely depend on the severity of Israel's attack.

They also noted that if Israel only targets a few military bases and weapons-storing warehouses, Iran might choose not to retaliate at all. However, Khamenei has ordered a response if Israel attacks oil or energy infrastructure, nuclear facilities, or assassinate senior officials. Any retaliation could involve a barrage of up to 1,000 ballistic missiles, escalated attacks by Iranian proxy militant groups, and disruptions to global energy supplies.

Newsweek has reached out to the Israeli Ministry of Defense via email for comments. Beni Sabti, a researcher in the Iran program at The Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, suggested that the report illustrates Iran's desire to limit the damage and exert international pressure on Israel. "Threatening by words is an old and even ancient way of avoiding a big war," he explained, comparing it to ancient warriors who sang threatening songs to intimidate their foes.

Reportedly, Netanyahu has assured the Joe Biden administration that he will refrain from targeting oil or nuclear facilities in Iran, as stated by two officials quoted in The Washington Post. Biden reiterated his support for Israel, affirming, "Make no mistake, the United States is fully, fully supportive of Israel." During a visit to Israel's Hatzerim air base, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant emphasized that after an attack on Iran, the results would be apparent to everyone in Israel and beyond.

Gallant further noted on X, formerly Twitter, "In my conversation with air force personnel, I emphasized – after we attack Iran, everyone will understand your might, the process of preparation and training – any enemy that tries to harm the state of Israel will pay a heavy price." Several Middle East analysts believe that Israel may strike Iran while the U.S. is preoccupied with its elections, which are less than two weeks away.

According to Sabti, "Israel will use this time—while the U.S. is busy with itself and the election—to hit Iran, while the U.S. is not warning or stopping it." Similarly, Michael Pregent, a senior Middle East analyst at the Hudson Institute, noted that it's typical for countries to exploit such windows of opportunity. He believes this pattern will persist during a "lame duck session," where Israel will "continue to step up their attacks to maximize their gains."