Trump's Betting Odds Rise Against Harris: What It Means For 2024 Elections

Former President Donald Trump continues to pull ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris with bookmakers. According to an average of betting odds by news website and data aggregator RealClearPolitics, bookies currently give the Republican nominee a 58.5 percent chance of winning, and Harris a 40.4 percent chance. This stands in stark contrast to Trump's odds in previous White House bids. During his last presidential campaign in 2020, Trump was 19.8 points behind President Joe Biden at the same time that year.

In 2016, when he successfully ran against then-Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton, RealClearPolitics's average gave Clinton an 85 percent chance of winning, and Trump a 15 percent chance. Though the Republican is now opening up a clear lead with oddsmakers, it is not the furthest ahead he's been during this election cycle. A week before Biden dropped out of the race, Trump was 48.2 points ahead.

When approached for comment on this lead, Trump campaign spokesperson Steven Cheung told Newsweek: "President Trump is out working Kamala Harris, and voters know America can no longer survive under Kamala's destructive policies of soaring inflation, an out-of-control border, and rampant crime terrorizing every community." Newsweek has also contacted the Harris campaign for comment via email outside of standard working hours.

While often indicative of broader trends, betting markets do not necessarily translate directly to election outcomes. But according to aggregates by Bookmakers Review, betting odds have accurately predicted 77 percent of the expected candidates winning over the last 35 years. Oddsmakers predicted Obama's win in 2012 and George W. Bush's in 2000, although in 2016 both pollsters and betting markets failed to anticipate Trump's victory.

"Betting markets have evolved into reasonably accurate predictors of elections—even more than some polls—but they're far from foolproof," Thomas Gift, a political scientist who runs the Centre on U.S. Politics at University College London, told Newsweek on Tuesday. "Often, we see wild, and unreasonable swings in these markets based on small events that appear to reflect a shift in momentum, but likely are just noise. Even though these markets have swung decidedly toward Trump of late, it's important to keep in mind that they still point to a race that's essentially a toss-up," Gift said.

Aggregations of national and swing state polls suggest the race is much closer than betting markets suggest. According to FiveThirtyEight, the candidates are separated by just 2.4 points, with Harris in the lead nationally as of early Friday.

In the critical swing states, Harris had a marginal lead in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Nevada, while Trump was slightly ahead in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. It should be noted that polls measure the popular vote. A presidential contender can win this yet still lose the election if they fail to secure 270 out of the 538 Electoral College votes, a number based on each state's delegates in the Senate and House of Representatives.

According to simulations by FiveThirtyEight, Harris wins the Electoral College 52 times out of 100, and Trump wins 48 times out of 100.

Do you have a story we should be covering? Do you have any questions about the 2024 presidential election? Contact LiveNews@newsweek.com