Groundhog Day 2024: Punxsutawney Phil's Predictions And The Tradition Behind It

If you're fed up of the winter weather, we've got some good news for you. Punxsutawney Phil didn't see his shadow during today's Groundhog Day 2024 ceremony, suggesting the sun will soon be shining on America. Thousands showed up online and in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, to watch the groundhog pop out of its den and give its weather forecast for the coming weeks.

During last year's event, the woodchuck spotted his shadow, prophesizing six more weeks of winter. However, some states experienced the earliest spring ever, while the overall temperature in the U.S. was slightly below average—meaning the supposedly psychic rodent was half right.

Why Do We Celebrate Groundhog Day?

Groundhog Day is one of North America's strangest but most adorable traditions. Dating back to 1887, the practice arose from the early European Christian holiday Candlemas Day. The occasion marked the halfway point between the winter and spring equinoxes, with clergymen blessing used candles and handing them out to locals every February 2.

If the weather was bright and clear during the celebration, people believed the remainder of the season would be long and difficult. However, if it was dull and cloudy, it meant spring was on the horizon. The holiday was embraced by the Germans, who added a hedgehog to the proceedings. If the sun was shining and the mammal saw its shadow, winter would linger. If it was overcast and the hedgehog didn’t see its shadow, then spring would come early.

German settlers brought the tradition to 1800s Pennsylvania, swapping the hedgehog for the local groundhogs. The first community celebration of Groundhog Day in Punxsutawney was in 1886. The holiday was first observed statewide in 1887, and was hosted by the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club in Gobbler's Knob.

According to the organization’s website, the club was founded to "protect and perpetuate the legend of the great weather-predicting groundhog," with the group hosting the annual festivities. According to History.com, it was also the year that locals brought in Punxsutawney Phil. Groundhogs start hibernating in late autumn, before briefly emerging from their burrows in February to search for a mate. They don’t fully come out of hibernation until March, unless hauled out of the earth on Groundhog Day.

How Often Are Punxsutawney Phil's Predictions Right?

The first Punxsutawney Phil correctly prophesized six more weeks of cold weather for the state, but his successors' attempts have been hit and miss. According to statistics compiled by Stormfax Weather Almanac, which tracks Phil's predictions, the groundhog has guessed the weather correctly only 39 percent of the time since the tradition began.

Although there are nine years of records missing from the total number of celebrations, that figure is unlikely to sway the count in the animal's favor. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) agrees. Data compiled by the regulatory agency showed that only 40 percent of the rodent's predictions between 2012 and 2021 were right. Nevertheless, the Groundhog Club swears that Phil is correct "100 percent of the time."