Kamala Harris Faces Tough Polling Against Donald Trump In Swing States

Vice President Kamala Harris is slipping behind former President Donald Trump in three crucial swing states, according to two new polls. With less than 10 days until Election Day, the race between Trump and Harris remains extremely tight, with the outcome largely depending on swing states, particularly Pennsylvania. The Keystone State has 19 electoral votes, more than any other swing state.

A recent Emerson College Polling/RealClearWorld survey shows Trump favored in North Carolina and Wisconsin, while a similar Emerson College Polling/RealClearPennsylvania poll shows the former president up in the Keystone State. Both polls aren't great for Harris' campaign, but since Trump's leads are within the margin of error, the race is still up for grabs.

Newsweek has reached out to Harris and Trump's campaign for comment via email on Friday. FiveThirtyEight ranks Emerson College as the 10th best pollster, based on its historical track record and methodology.

Pennsylvania's Narrow Margin

The poll of 860 likely voters, conducted between October 21 and 22, found Trump with a 1 percentage point lead, 49 percent to Harris' 48 percent. Three percent of respondents are undecided. Among the undecided voters, 51.6 percent said they lean towards Harris, while 48.4 percent lean towards Trump. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.

Neither candidate has a majority favorability rating, the poll found. For Harris, 46.8 percent of respondents view her at least somewhat favorably, while 53.2 percent hold an unfavorable opinion of her.

For Trump, the gap is narrower, with 49 percent of respondents viewing him at least somewhat favorably and 51 percent holding an unfavorable opinion. Trump narrowly won Pennsylvania in 2016 against Hillary Clinton, while President Joe Biden flipped it in 2020.

North Carolina's Insights

A similar poll in North Carolina found Trump with a slightly larger lead of 2 percentage points. The Emerson College Polling/RealClearWorld survey of 950 likely North Carolina voters conducted between October 21 and 22 found 50 percent back Trump's candidacy while 48 percent support Harris. Three percent are undecided.

Among undecided voters, 36.6 percent lean towards Harris while 63.4 percent lean towards Trump. The two major party candidates are essentially tied in terms of favorability, with Harris slightly ahead of Trump.

About 49.6 percent of respondents find her at least somewhat favorable, while 49.4 percent view Trump at least somewhat favorably. Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling noted gender patterns among respondents, saying, "In North Carolina, men back Trump by 13 points, while women support Harris by seven points."

Wisconsin's Competitive Edge

A poll of 800 likely Wisconsin voters conducted between October 21 and 22 found Trump leading Harris within the margin of error, 49 percent to 48 percent. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percent.

Among undecided voters, Harris has a majority, with 64.9 percent leaning toward her compared to 35 percent who lean toward Trump. More Wisconsinites view Trump at least somewhat favorably than unfavorably, while the opposite is true for Harris.

Men back Trump by a slightly smaller margin in the state, while more women favor Harris than in North Carolina. According to Kimball, "In Wisconsin, men support Trump by 12, while women favor Harris by nine points."

In 2020, President Biden won the state, while Trump won it in 2016. Former President Barack Obama won the state twice, in 2008 and 2012. Nationwide and aggregate polls gauge voter sentiment, but individual states and their Electoral College votes ultimately decide the presidential election.

To win the presidency, a candidate must secure 270 electoral votes, which doesn’t always align with the national popular vote.